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Valuation Engine

Run a full company valuation using US-listed market data, compare the resulting range across methods, and export the model to Excel.

The Valuation Engine takes a company from operating assumptions to a range of enterprise and equity values. It builds a bottom-up beta from public comps, forecasts unlevered cash flow, calculates APV, and compares the result with trading multiples, sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and buyer-specific cases. Every input is visible and editable.

How the model works

Bottom-up beta from a live five-year monthly regression of each comp against the S&P 500.
Simplified unlevering formula, consistent with discounting tax shields at the unlevered cost of capital.
Mid-year convention on by default. Turn it off to see the roughly five percent swing.
Gordon Growth terminal value, capped by the long-run growth of the economy.
APV separates operating value from financing effects, with tax shields valued explicitly.

01 / BOTTOM-UP BETA

Build beta from the comps

Use up to eight US-listed comparable companies to estimate the target's operating risk. The engine fetches five years of monthly prices, regresses each company against the S&P 500, and removes the effect of its capital structure. The average asset beta becomes the operating risk measure used throughout the valuation.

The regression

β_equity = Cov(R_stock, R_market) / Var(R_market)
β_asset  = β_equity / (1 + D/E)

Quick start

Loads five representative comps and default P&L assumptions. Every input remains editable.

Comparable tickers

Enter ticker

Ticker	β equity	D / E	Tax rate	β asset
Add at least two tickers and run the regression.
Industry asset beta	—

Ready.

02 / DISCOUNT RATE

CAPM, unlevered

The unlevered cost of capital is what we discount every unlevered cash flow at. Tax shields get discounted at the same rate, consistent with the simplified unlevering choice above.

Risk-free rate (%) US 10-year Treasury. Auto-fetched on load.

Market risk premium (%) Damodaran implied ERP default.

Asset β (target) Auto-filled from the comps average. Editable.

The resulting rate

r_a = R_f + β_asset × MRP
    = 4.25% + 0.85 × 5.5% = 8.93%

03 / UNLEVERED FREE CASH FLOW

Five-year UFCF build

Unlevered free cash flow is the cash the business generates before any financing decisions. Interest is deliberately absent. APV values the financing separately through the tax shield line.

The build

UFCF = EBIT × (1 − t) + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC

Operating assumptions

Base revenue (Y0) Any unit. Results scale linearly.

EBIT margin (%)

Effective tax rate (%)

D&A (% of revenue)

Capex (% of revenue)

NWC (% of Δrevenue) As a fraction of revenue change.

Growth path

Year 1 (%)

Year 2 (%)

Year 3 (%)

Year 4 (%)

Year 5 (%)

	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5

04 / TERMINAL VALUE AND APV

Assemble the firm value

The terminal value captures everything beyond the explicit forecast. Gordon Growth requires a terminal growth rate that sits below the long-run growth of the economy. Mid-year convention reflects that cash flows arrive throughout the year, not at year-end.

Gordon Growth

TV = UFCF_6 / (r_a − g)

Terminal growth g (%) Stays below long-run nominal GDP.

Mid-year convention

Debt balance for tax shield Constant debt assumed. PV of interest × tax rate, capitalised.

PV of UFCF (Y1–Y5)	—
Terminal value (Y6 onward)	—
PV of terminal value	—
Unlevered firm value	—
PV of tax shields	—
APV enterprise value	—

Equity bridge

Net debt Total debt minus cash and liquid investments.

Equity value

—

05 / THREE BUYER ARCHETYPES

Max price per buyer

The standalone number tells you what the business is worth alone. The deal is what it is worth to a specific acquirer, because the synergies sit on top and synergies are acquirer-specific. The three archetypes below each carry a different synergy story.

The formula

Max Price = Standalone + PV(Synergies) × Capture %

Capture share (%) Seller's share of synergy value.

Synergy ramp Year 1 often negative. Year 5 at 100%.

Y1 (%)

Y2 (%)

Y3 (%)

Y4 (%)

Y5 (%)

Buyer A

The consolidator. Overlapping ops. Cost-heavy synergies.

Cost synergy (% of target revenue)

Revenue synergy (% of target revenue)

Buyer B

The adjacent platform. Product gap. Revenue-heavy synergies.

Cost synergy (%)

Revenue synergy (%)

Buyer C

The financial buyer. Portfolio tuck-in. Blended synergies.

Cost synergy (%)

Revenue synergy (%)

Buyer	Synergy PV	Captured	Max EV	Max equity

06 / SENSITIVITY

Two-variable sensitivity

Valuation depends on assumptions, and some have more influence than others. Choose two inputs to see how the APV enterprise value changes across a range. Darker cells indicate higher values.

X axis

Y axis

X axis

07 / TRADING MULTIPLES

What the comps trade at

Trading multiples provide a market cross-check on the cash flow valuation. The engine pulls each comp's enterprise value, EBITDA, and revenue, calculates the implied multiples, and applies the resulting range to the target's financials.

The triangulation

EV         = Market Cap + Total Debt − Cash
EV / EBITDA = EV / EBITDA
EV / Revenue = EV / Revenue
Target EV (comp) = Target EBITDA × median(EV / EBITDA of comps)

Ticker	Market cap	EV	EV / EBITDA	EV / Revenue
Run the regression above to populate trading multiples.
Median			—	—

Apply to target

Target EBITDA (Y1) Default = EBIT + D&A in Y1. Edit to match.

Target revenue (Y1) Y1 forecast. Auto-filled, editable.

Comp-implied EV band

—

08 / MONTE CARLO

What the distribution looks like

A single APV result cannot show the uncertainty inside its assumptions. Set pessimistic, most-likely, and optimistic values for the five inputs below. The engine runs ten thousand trials and displays the resulting distribution of enterprise values.

What varies

Variable	Pessimistic	Most likely	Optimistic
Revenue growth (avg)
EBIT margin
Terminal growth (g)
Market risk premium
Asset β

09 / FOOTBALL FIELD

All methods on one axis

The football field places the APV, trading-comps ranges, Monte Carlo output, and buyer cases on the same value scale. The dashed line marks the deterministic APV, making it easier to compare where the methods converge and where they differ.